Big day for economic data, and we'll hear from Trump a few times

Good morning

US equities had another decent day despite European markets looking more mixed yesterday.  Overnight Asian markets were generally positive.  We didn’t see a great deal of action in the currency markets yesterday, GBPUSD sat in the low 1.34’s for much of the day while EURUSD traded in the high 1.13’s, both still around those levels as I type. 

Aussie inflation data was released overnight, coming in slightly above expectations, and AUD pushed higher as a result.  GBPAUD, which had traded above 2.1000 yesterday is now 2.0910, having seen a low of 2.0860. while AUDNZD pushed up from 1.0740 to 1.0810, now back to 1.0790.  AUDUSD is just around the 0.6400 level with 0.6440 proving to be some sort of decent upside resistance area.  A 25bps cut in rates by RBA is still expected in May.

UK trade negotiators have warned that a US trade deal could face problems if UK and EU align closer.  There has recently been talk of UK drafting a statement that would see the UK and EU rejecting the most controversial of Trumps’ policies, while I see this morning that UK are close to agreeing to meet EU’s food standards, something that I’m sure would disappoint the US who want to sell their chlorinated chicken and hormone treated beef to the rest of the world.

Canada voted in Carney’s Liberals but they failed to get the majority required.  Trump has already spoken to Carney to congratulate him, Carney has said both leaders agreed on Canada’s status as a sovereign nation and the importance of working together for their mutual benefit.   

In sport, Arsenal put up a valiant fight against a slick PSG side but lost 1-0, leaving them with a lot of work to do in the second leg next week.  Barcelona take on Inter Milan this evening in their semi-final. 

Today’s calendar is pretty full with GDP numbers from Germany EU and US, we also have the Core PCE number from the US this afternoon.  US ADP employment is also out following a weaker than expected JOLTS release yesterday.  I see Trump speaking several times today, he’s just passed 100 days in the role during which time we have seen huge volatility in the financial markets and US consumer confidence is at a five year low.  Expect more talk of Trumps desire for rate cuts and no doubt he’ll take the opportunity to tell Powell what a bad job his doing over at the Fed.

If you thought it was warm and sunny yesterday, its likely to be even warmer today so make sure you get outside at some point for a much needed vitamin D top up.  Could be up to 25°c this afternoon, and the forecast suggests it’ll be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow.

Have a great day….

-  08.55 German GDP, unemployment

-  10.00 EU GDP

-  12.00 BoEs Lombardelli speaks

-  13.00 German HICP

-  13.15 US ADP employment change

-  13.30 US GDP, Core PCE, personal income/spending

-  14.45 US Chicago PMI

-  15.00 US pending home sales

-  16.00 President Trump speaks

-  16.30 BoEs Lombardelli speaks

-  21.00 President Trump speaks

-  01.00 President Trump speaks

-  02.30 AUS trade balance

-  03.30 BoJ rate announcement